A Conversation with John

by John Mauldin December 4, 2009 In this issue: A Conversation with John Unemployment Positives New York, London, Monaco, and Zuric

Video Dispatch: Israel and Intrigue at the White House

The Uncomfortable Dance Between V’ers and U’ers

by Paul McCulley

Around the world, in investment committee meetings and on trading floors (and at the Fed!), one question dominates discussion and debate:

How can it be that risk assets, notably common stocks, have been roaring ahead, presumably discounting a robust V-shaped economic recovery, while Treasury bonds are holding their own with a bull flattening bias, presumably rejecting the V-shaped hypothesis, instead discounting a U-shaped recovery as the base case, with a W-shaped outcome the dominant risk case?

Catching Argentinian Disease

I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings. The conversation kept coming back to the prospects for the dollar, but I was just as interested in talking with money managers and business people who had experienced the hyperinflation of Argentina and Brazil. How could such a thing happen? As it turned out, I was reading a rather remarkable book that addressed that question. There are those who believe that the United States is headed for hyperinflation because of our large and growing government fiscal deficit and massive future liabilities (as much as $56 trillion) for Medicare and Social Security.This week, we will look at the Argentinian experience and ask ourselves whether “it” – hyperinflation – can happen here.

Zen Lessons in Market Analysis

By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

“The best way of preparing for the future is to take good care of the present, because we know that if the present is made up of the past, then the future will be made up of the present. All we need to be responsible for is the present moment. Only the present is within our reach. To care for the present is to care for the future.”